Category: Apple


My Crystal Ball and Apple

So, it’s bad enough that I had to make my views of quarterly Apple announcements public. But now I’m going to take it even further and peer into my crystal ball and talk about what I think we are likely to see this year. As always, I am not a paid analyst. I do not work for Apple. I am NOT privy to any information of their plans. This is all guess work based on years employed in a career that hinges on my paying attention to what Apple does and more importantly doesn’t do.

Short form: This is all theory based on rumour. Do not blow a gasket at (or sue) me if you lose money based on my opinions.

Apple’s been on a good Year over Year growth trend now for a few years with last Q3 being a standout due to the shift of the iPhone ship date. Whether this was a calculated move to balance their yearly deliverables over the medium term, or the first slip in a very long time… we likely will not know. However, each quarter this year… seems to have something packed into worth tracking.

For the purpose of this post there will be far more detail in the early calendar quarters due to how those quarters play out on the rest of they year.

Calendar Quarter 1:

We’re already hearing rumours of there being an iPad event and potentially an earlier “Unusual” event. In my previous post I commented that Q1 would be the Pro laptop/desktop quarter. I now think we’re going to be pushing more of the Mac into Q1. Mac hardware has been moving more and more into speed bump announcements. There have been no real revolutionary form changes in quite some time. The addition of Thunderbolt means that expansion is on a pro level for any machine that has it.

One of the rumors I’ve heard that I like is that the MacBook will be replaced with the MacBook Air. The Air in 11, 13, and 15″ sizes will be the Mac Book. The Pro in 13, 15, 17 will be as is. All systems will get Thunderbolt, BTLE, and the MBP may see their first iteration of retina screens.

The Mac Tower has been a bit of a dying breed. With distributed processing, you can do as much with 2-4 minis as you can with 1 tower. And in pretty much less space. I think you’re going to see a mini-pro (sort of an extension of the mini-server). The biggest complaint becomes expandability. But with Apple trying to move out of the “External Hardware World” it may finally bite the bullet and EOL the Macintosh Tower. If you want a modifiable box, stick with Windows or Linux.

Apple will finally say that Mac OS X 10.7 users exceed 10.6 users. There will be great statistical spin on how well 10.7 is doing.

I think the “unusual” rumour floating is that the dividend is going to roll or at least be announced this quarter. I’m not a financial whiz concerning how dividends work beyond you make $x each quarter based on earnings and your shares… But it will entice some investors who have been continually Bullish on Apple for hoarding its cash mound.

But none of this provides the quarterly revenue bang to carry into calendar Q2.

So, 2012Q1 will also deliver the iPad 3. Obviously there will be Retina and Siri. There will likely also be an announcement that it’s running iOS 5.5 which will offer developers a beta of the Siri SDK. Siri will continue to be a beta component. In the US the iPad will have 3G models that talk to AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, and T-Mobile. I believe that the iPad3 will also be the first 4G product we see from Apple. BTLE will be standard. And a few other bells and whistles that may journalists will find completely underwhelming and yet it will still break sales records. And yes, I will have one on the day it ships. My loving spouse has already acknowledged this.

Calendar Quarter 2:

April brings spring, initial reports of lines and channel delays on the iPad 3, and of course… WWDC clamoring. Tickets for WWDC will go on sale this month and will sell out faster than the 1996 Kiss reunion tour. May will offer an iPod/iTunes event. The Touch will get Siri (and otherwise neglected), the Nano might get a camera (and otherwise get neglected) and the overly neglected iPod Classic shall head to that great Apple roundup in the sky and be EOL’d under the holy cloud of the Cloud. Journalists will find the announcements completely underwhelming and yet it will provide great sales. Stock prices will hit their low point of the year (barring issues from the fed, natural disaster, politics, the collapse of the European markets) during May-June. This will be the time to buy up more Apple Stock.

June will bring us WWDC. The pre-event schedule will have lots of iOS 5.5 stuff and a LOT of TBA. This assumes that a pre-event schedule gets distributed. 10.7.5 will be announced. It will be available in August. The earliest look at Mac OS 10.8 will surface. I’m going with “White Lion” as I must credit the genius of NetNewsWire’s Brett Simons for twittering after the release of 10.7.1, “I can’t wait for Snow Lion to come out.” White Lion won’t be feature rich, but it will show more integration between Mac OS and iOS. Expect more of the iOS store limitations to be announced for Mac OS. Expect better iOS/Mac OS integration. There maaaay be some Mac/Apple TV(2) interaction stuff. (Don’t hold your breath, but don’t be surprised) Expect iBooks for Mac OS 10.7.5. iWork will get more tripped out.

Then there will be the introduction of iOS 6. iOS 6 will have a tonne of surprises. One of the big surprises that is shared by iOS 6 and Mac OS 10.8 will be Core “Whatsis”. I’m not entirely sure what Core Whatsis is. It will have a lot of potential. It will seem like it really can do some killer things. But the applications will seem like there is something missing. We’ll come back to Core Whatsis. Many of the rumoured patent issues people have been thinking about will be rolled in. Parental controls/Corporate security refinements (Pretty much the same thing) will be greatly extended. Multi User will be in place. iOS 6 will run on the iPad 2 & 3, not the iPad 1. (First EOL’ing of an iPad) and (one more thing (This will be Phil Shiller’s first utterance of “One More Thing” which will bring a standing Ovation before he even announces it))

The iPhone 5 will be introduced. It will have a changed form factor. It will be 4G, It will have Near Field, There may be a size or colour addition. And other bells and whistles. The iPhone will be available around September with orders opening (yadda, yadda, yadda). It will ship with iOS 5.5. Samsung will fail to impress and continue to try to make fun of people waiting for iPhone’s in line. Core Whatis will make 5 % more sense but still be leaving more questions than answers. Apple will not provide them. They will provide a jacket to attendees that has pockets. Developers will still have to pay for the cooler annual t-shirt.

Calendar Quarter 3:

With the exception of the iPhone 5 Elephant in the room. Q3 will be quiet. Some Macs will see some speed bumps. 10.7.5 will release. In Late September there will be an event. iPad 3 will be the #1 back to school gift.

The iPhone 5 initial sales will be announced, lots of rehashing. If all goes according to plan, the Apple TV will either be announced or in a more surprising turn, be announced for purchase. The Apple TV will be running iOS 5.5 and will have the iOS 5.5 SDK available to Developers. (Though, expect an AppleTV Developer program, similar to the Mac, iOS, and Safari ones) At this point Core Whatsis will make a lot more sense. And all the other surprises. Here I will be vague as I haven’t really dived into Apple TV details yet. I will more likely follow this up after WWDC with whatever information I can share that’s not NDA to developers.

Calendar Quarter 4:

The holidays will come. Apple will sell a MFT of hardware. The Apple Halo effect will continue to grow both the iPad and Mac sales. The TV will be hailed by some and condemned by the rest. Everyone will have a strong opinion. Note: Everyone will have an opinion. (And for my own sense of humour. In Q4, RIM will declare bankruptcy).

-=-=-=-

This is just my personal view on Apple. When the year is over I will probably have far more wrong than right.

Here’s the summary. Go forth.

January: Apple Quarterly report
February: Annual Stockholder’s meeting / Special “Unusual” event

  • Macbook Air -> Macbook 11, 13, 15
  • End of the Pro Desktop?
  • iMac/Mini Pro
  • Dividend/Split?

March: iPad Event

  • iPad 3, (Retina, Siri, +)
  • iOS 5.5b, (Siri beta SDK)
  • Pre-Announce iOS 6?

April: Apple Quarterlies
May: iPod/iTunes event

  • iPod Changes (End of the classic),
  • iPod Touch + SIRI
  • iPod Nano w/Camera?

June: WWDC

  • iOS 5.5 release date announcement. iOS 6
  • Mac OS X 10.8: White Lion
  • iPhone 5 – Near Field, multi user, Siri no longer beta, Core Whatsis

July: Apple Quarterlies
Aug: Mac Book Pro. Mac Speed Bumps. 10.7.5
Sep: iOS 5.5, Apple TV (3), iPhone 5
Oct: Apple Quarterlies
Nov: Black Friday
Dec: XMas.

Special thanks to May Kim the Photoshop genius at my office for the assistance on the graphic for this post.

Disclaimers:

  1. I do not work for Apple. I have never worked for Apple. Maybe one day the universe will smile on me and I shall work for Apple but I guarantee it will be the last employer I ever have.
  2. I am not a Wall Street Wiz. I do not fully understand the nature of stocks, bonds, options, etc. I do not day trade. I do not consider myself an active investor
  3. My comments do not reflect any company I work for, my family, my loved ones, my friends, my frienemies, my enemies, my diety, or any other thing that may go bump in the night.
  4. When I give Quarter numbers, I’m using Calendar quarters

Apple is currently trading at about $410 per share as 2012 kicks in. The 12 month estimate by many analysts is 460-500.

So I decided to throw my hat into the ring with only my experience of building my career off of Apple’s business.

First off: Previously to last week, the last time I bought into Apple Stock was December of 2008. For those keeping track that was in fact 3 weeks before Apple introduced the iPhone. I purchased at $92.67 per share. Which has now increased about 350%. I did not know for a fact that the iPhone was being introduced. But I had enough confidence in the rumours I was hearing at that point.

So where are we now? Apple has just delivered a holiday quarter that has had all iPhone carrier’s exclaiming record sales. (In the US: Verizon and AT&T simply won’t shut up about their iSales). In about 2 weeks Apple will deliver it’s quarterly numbers. The halo effect of these iOS sales continues to be very visible to anyone tracking Mac usage as well as Mac OS version usage. Black Friday on showed an unbelievable uptick in 10.7 Mac usage with a surprising lack of those numbers coming from pre-10.6 users scrapping those old machines. In fact, Giving a used Mac to a friend as a holiday gift seems to be on the increase this year.

I was a Steve fan as much as anyone else. But there were certain areas he was tenaciously stubborn about that I think that he might actually have been wrong about. One of the major issues was the “Berkshire Hathaway” view of having LARGE stock prices and no dividends. Wall Street definitely had a history of vicious treatment of the company that in the 90’s couldn’t have an article written about it that didn’t contain the word “Beleaguered.” In the 90’s you could be assured that if there was bad news, the Apple stock price would fall. If there was really good news, it would still fall. Much of this was blamed on the fickleness of day traders affecting the large investors (Money Markets, Indexes, Mutuals, etc). So there was no point to Dividends because there really wasn’t a reason to reward investors. People weren’t in Apple for the “Long” haul. And Apple was busy mounting a war chest of cash in case it needed to buy itself out against a hostile take-over.

But this isn’t the 90’s. This is 2012 where we’re dealing with a company that has gone up 400+% in the past 5 yrs and 3500% in the past 10 yrs. All with one split and no dividends. We now have some fairly entrenched funds that are in Apple for long range investment. Apple is major component of the NASDAQ and had to be reduced to more fairly balance the NASDAQ index.

Personally, I think Tim Cook sees this and has been pushing for either a split or a dividend for quite some time. And these are the kind of behaviors that will push long term heavy investors to push more money into Apple. It does risk bringing the day traders back in; but it also could cause another burst in value to push a post split cost up to a range that would again reduce the day trader signal to noise ratio.

But Apple doesn’t just play to Wall Street and that’s what’s made them so successful the past 15 years. As Jobs quoted Gretsky, “Don’t skate to the puck, skate to where the puck is going to be.” Apple has a bad 3rd quarter and it was well aware it was going to. Wall Street again battered them for “The ride is over” but the simple truth there was that they were positioning the products in the quarters that would give them the better return. This is why Apple is so tenacious about secrecy on new products. Once people are convinced the new product is coming; they stop buying the old product. The number of people this summer who asked me if they should wait for the (not yet delivered) iPhone 5 was insane. If you want an iPhone, get an iPhone. And then replace it after a comfortable amount of time. But many people expecting the replacement knowing it was not coming out when expected waited. One analyst said he expects the Q4 numbers to make up and include the perceived loss of the Q3 numbers. Apple wants the right killer product every quarter to make up the sales numbers. And if it means having one bad quarter to move a product to a better quarter… so be it.

Short form: Apple doesn’t care if it has a bad quarter if it will make things look even better in the long run. You may not be into Apple for the Long run, but Apple is.

So what’s on the horizon? Who knows. However, I will now look at the amorphous world of rumours and give you my opinions.

FIRST: UNTIL IT’S OUT; IT DON’T EXIST (SIC)

In general I think we’re going to see the following schedule in the world of Apple:
Q1: Mac Pro Laptops/Desktops
Q2: iPad 3
Q3: Mac Consumer Laptops / iMacs
Q4: iPhone: Alternating yearly between New models and “S” revs. 2012-Q4: iPhone 5; 2013-Q4: iPhone 5+; 2014-Q4: iPhone 6;

Ah but what about this elusive iTV. I think people will expect it in Q2, not get it; Wall Street will punish Apple for yet another unannounced product and then it will bounce back.

Oh, there’s certainly iTV in the works. Though, Q2 seems to early. It would also steal thunder from the iPad 3. Now if we swap Q1/Q2 and get the iPad out earlier the TV is potential for that Quarter. Personally, I wouldn’t expect to see it before Q4 with potentially an unveil in Q3 for the purposes of WWDC.

It is obvious that there is a conceptual progression within Apple for areas to move into that are not its base line of products. It also is still being first to ship on quickly imitated technologies, “Look Android and MSFT Phone have Siri, too… Um.. now”

So we can be sure that the iPad 3, the iPhone 5 will sell like gangbusters and continue Apple’s recent history of Year over year revenue increases. We also are clearly seeing a huge Halo effect into the App Store, Music Store, Mac platform. This for the next year or two will increase.

The competition. RIM is pretty well dead. Interest in the MSFT phone platform doesn’t sound good and with their treatment of the ZUNE, confidence in the long term is very low. Android is now closing code (1). Amazon is still selling at a loss. Things don’t look good number wise.

Okay… estimate time.

Initially my target number was 540 when I bought at $400 last week. I however am going to change that.

I believe that in other Q1 or Q2 the Quarterly report will include one or both of the following
A Split and a Dividend.
Personally, I think they could do a 3:2, but I think it will be a 2:1: This would effectively take the share price to $200. I think with the iPhone 4S numbers, the iPhone 5 and iPad 3 alone, this will then increase throughout the year to $275. If the TV does announce at this point; I think you will see that number in the range of 250-325 depending on its success.

So my final target for APPL for Dec 2012 (Assuming we haven’t found the mayan clock referred to at the bottom of the first clock where it says, “Continued on next clock”)
No Split: $560
Split: $295 ($590)

And no. I am not liable if you take this advice and lose your shirt :)

Regards.
Papa Drè
(I use that name when gambling)

(1) Android Ranked most ‘closed’ open source OS
(2) Android’s ‘clopen’ Ecosystem is Taking Toll on Customers
(3)
Consequences Of Android’s “Openness”

Edits:
020120103.1355 – Added Android Footnote (1)
021202103.1359 – Added Android Footnotes (2,3)

Apple Logo With Steve Jobs' SillhouetteTim Cook and many of the executives at Apple were chastised by Steve before his inevitable departure to not ask “What would Steve do?” in managing the company in his absence.

In my mind this is excellent, but only half guidance. The “Company that Steves Built” can not try to second guess all of Jobs answers to ever situation; however, where and more properly how can the guidance of Jobs be used to maintain and bring the company forward? I think the devil is in the details.

I’ve been reading Jobs’ biography. On the one hand he was a marketing and sales Genius. He saw long range better than any 10 executives saw short to medium range. With the original Mac, he saw the laptop. With the laptop he saw the tablet. But Jobs could also be a tyrannical monster and would occassionally let ego get in the way of solution. Compromise was not an option in his world and more often than not he was correct.

Jobs was a complicated individual (understatement) who combined paranoia with existential love, a Shoalin Master’s respect for beauty with a pit bulls vicious quest to market only best in class products. These things drove his expertise, his eye for detail, and his cruel treatment of anyone he didn’t respect.

I think this drives inherent hole in the entire “What would ##### do” mentality. Each person has to drive towards excellence; but they can only do so in their own way for themselves. A friend once told me that Dogma is the Excrement of Spiritual Realisation.

I think the question that Apple should ask is not “What would Steve do?” It is pretty much obvious what Jobs would do in most situations. I think his motivations and life of experiences and learning got him there. So I think the effective question that would better server Apple and could then be rolled out to other great leaders reduces very simply.

Why would Steve do?

With “Why would ##### do” we find the path to excellence rather than trying to emulate previous excellence for the wrong purposes.

Updated: I’ve bolded what I got right, and struck thru the wrong. I think this may be the best I’ve ever done on one of these.

I have to admit, as a niche Apple 3rd party engineer, I hate these days. It’s not that I’m not excited for the technologies, believe me; I am. But so is everyone else now. Over the last 2-4 weeks I have been asked by no less than 50 people what is being released. Actually, to be more exact, people ask me if “Product X” will be released.

A couple of reminders. I do not not have I ever worked for Apple. <sarcasm degree=”mild”>So, of course; I am utterly privy to their product release schedule.</sarcasm> Okay, it’s true. As a niche developer who’s devoted my career to one company’s products; I do make business analysis part of my job. But, personally, I’ve gotta feel sorry for the guys who do that for a job like Ken Ray and Andy Ihnatko. They must get grilled by the minute coming into one of these.

But of course; yes, I have my predictions of what will occur today.

But first, I do remind everyone to take a breath and consult this BRILLIANT chart of the Anatomy of Apple Rumors.

Software:
It’s pretty damned obvious we’ll be seeing iOS 5.0 and Mac OS 10.7.2. I do not believe that the former will be available today. Going by the rumor and leaks board (as I will not confirm my knowledge as a developer under NDA) The last beta seed of iOS 5.0 was released on the 30th of August. Beta seed 7 came a very short time after beta seed 6 and dealt with iCloud adjustments. There was also a seed of 10.7.2 and iTunes. At this time; I do not believe developers have been given the go ahead to submit app updates against iOS 5.0. This process takes 1-2 weeks. Usually quicker pre-release. But the idea of Apple releasing an OS without the Apps really checked solidly against the release version for bugs and crashes seems RISKY. So: Expect a solid release date for iOS 5.0 of 1-3 weeks from now.
10.7.2 may release today; but I sense that the rapid iCloud updates suggest there may be a little bump or two that needs to be ironed out. And if they are seeing these bumps with thousands of developers; they know they aren’t ready for millions of non-developers. iCloud is the future for Apple and it has to above all else not be another Mobile Me.

iCloud:
On the topic of iCloud; it touches everything. So expect updates to Mac OS, iOS, iLife, iWork (Mac and iOS), AppleTV, and anything else that Apple touches with storage.

iPhones:
Ah the question I have been asked for months. Literally.
The rumours are split over two devices: the iPhone 4S and the iPhone 5.
Again, strictly off the rumours boards I don’t see an iPhone 5 coming at this time.
I realize that it’s been 16 months since the last major phone release. I realise that the Holiday buying season is about to kick off (or did that start in May, I lose track)
Honestly, unless Apple has achieved an entirely new standard in leak control (which is possible) there’s not a lot to hang the iPhone 5 off of at this point. Also; this kind of a change is more likely to cannibalise some of their potential holiday sales. With the current war on the middle class; people want better for cheaper. And new iPhone models ‘appear’ cheaper by having more power and doodads for the same price. So, an iPhone 5 will have great power, but still be a tier above netting a huge holiday influx. Especially with toys like cheap Androids and the Amazon Kindle Fire being sold at a loss.
I’m going to agree with the following rumors:
iPhone 4 at 8GB for less than the current models. A surprising amount less
iPhone 3GS base model for free with a contract. And I can see all the advertising, “You can get an Apple iPhone for FREE*” (With that huge asterisk over the word Free because a contract is always necessary”

The iPhone 4S. (S is for Speed) New chip (A5, dual core?), slightly better cameras (maybe), and better antennas. Not a whole lot new. The other concern with the iPhone 5 now is that people have learnt to wait 2-3 months on a NEW model. And that doesn’t appeal to the true Christmas, “BUY NOW NOW NOW!” spirit.
I also do not believe the iPhone4S will come in multi-carrier flavor. Too much of a board and phone redesign. Expect that in the 5.

What else will motivate people to those 3GS, 4, and maybe new 4S?

The death of the iPod Classic. People don’t need 120G of music on their phone immediately. Especially if they can genius from the cloud. (Ignoring the fact that the Cloud is in direct opposition to the Providers throttling over usage) Now I’ve never been a huge iPod nut, so beyond that. Will there be shake up on the rest of the iPod line? Dunno (Actually, don’t really care 😉

iPod Touch… Honestly… I think that will just sort of sit until the next major update.

Other New Stuff:
Sprint – Yes, already. Blazingly obvious
T-Mobile, USA – No (Sound the cloister bells on this company)

There’s been a lot of talk about the Siri Assistant thingie. Voice to text. A continual dream. If Apple releases that with iOS 5.0 this month that will cause a little eden backlash (which Apple really doesn’t put a lot into). The Siri will obviously need an API for devs. But, Apple as the advance on that. So will they release Apps with a competitive edge that devs don’t have access to immediately? Seems suspect; but they’ve done it before. It could also be the reason that there hasn’t been a “use this version for submittal” yet.

Updated: I’m going to take half credit here. Siri is being released with iOS 5 only for the iPhone 4S as a beta. Further it is only listed as available (at the current time) for Native OS apps. So theoretically, iWork apps and the like won’t have Siri on their next release. The problem occurs when Apple sells an app that someone may compete with that has access to proprietary services or APIs that are otherwise unavailable.

Rentals, Movies, Music, Media…
A little of this a little of that.

Something long overdue for the international folks.

The future:
I think the things you want to see: iPhone5 (iOS 5.1 or 5.5; will not support the 3GS), iPad3, Apple TV 3, etc
January. In competition with CES; “Like they do.”

SUMMARY:

  • OS/Software
  • iOS 5.0 – solid release date 1-3 weeks
  • MacOS 10.7.2 – solid release date 1 week, maybe today
  • iCloudwith whatever OS hits first(End of October)
  • Siri – 30% with a chance of iOS delay (Beta, see comments above)
  • Apple TV update(Expect by the end of Oct)
  • iWork, iLife(Expect by the mid of Nov)
  • Hardware
    • iPhone 3GS – free
    • iPhone 4 – 8G model
    • iPhone 4S – 16G, 32G, (new)64G model (How they pack it in will be a surprise)
  • Other
    • Sprint to carry iPhone
    • Movie, App, Music thingeeCards?
    • Something nifty internationally

    The last word: I am wrong more than I am right on these things. Apple has a history for pulling products at not merely the 11th hour but at 12:02 with a five minute delay in the presentation. I know many of my fellow third party developers really wanted to see C.B. at WWDC and still do. Apple is also very good at keeping certain things under DEEP wraps. So I fully will be happy to be entirely wrong on my predictions.

    Check back in a day or so when I grade myself.

    Follow the bouncing date

    WWDC season is approaching again. For those out of the know this is Apple’s World Wide Developer Conference.

    This is the “Go To” conference for Mac Tech. The future of the platforms are exposed here. Interestingly, we’re supposed to get an entirely new OS this summer called Lion: Mac OS X 10.7. Developers have seen exactly what the public has seen concerning this OS.

    Now the format of WWDC goes like this (at least the last 3 years)

    • Dec-Mar: Rumoured estimate of WWDC Dates
    • Mar/Apr: WWDC Dates announced, tickets on sale
    • (Shortening span): WWDC Tickets sold out
    • June (give or take a week): WWDC

    Here’s the actual recap:

    • 2008
      • 2008: No early rumour
      • Mar 13, 2008: Apple announces WWDC 2008 June 9-13 (Tix on sale) $1295/1595
      • May 14, 2008: WWDC 2008 sold out (60 days, first sell out)
      • June 8-12, 2008: WWDC 2008
    • 2009
      • Mar 6, 2009: Rumour of WWDC 2009 to be 2nd week of June
      • Mar 26, 2009: Apple announces WWDC 2009 June 8-12 (Tix on sale) $1295/1595
      • Apr 28, 2009: WWDC 2009 sold out (28 days)
      • June 8-12, 2009: WWDC 2009
    • 2009/2010
      • Dec 21, 2009: Rumour of WWDC 2010 to be June 28-July 2
      • April 28, 2010: Apple announces WWDC 2010 June 7-11 (Tix on sale) $1599
      • May 6, 2010: WWDC 2010 sold out (8 days)
      • June 7-11, 2010: WWDC 2010 (Announce iOS4, iWork for iOS, iPhone 4, XCode 4)
    • 2011
      • Feb 7, 2010: Rumour of WWDC 2011 to be June 5-June 9
      • March 28, 2011 8:30 AM EST: Apple announces WWDC 2011 June 6-10 (Tix on sale) $1599
      • March 28, 2011 6:30 PM EST: WWDC 2011 sold out 10 Hours
      • June 6-10, 2011: WWDC 2011 (Announce???)
    • 2012
      • Feb 12, 2011: Rumour of WWDC 2012 to be June 10-June 15
      • April 25, 2012 8:30 AM EST: Apple announce WWDC 2012 June 11-15 (Tix on sale) $1599
      • April 25, 2012 10:23 AM EST: WWDC 2012 sell out 1 Hour 53 minutes.
      • June 11-15, 2012: WWDC 2012
    • 2013
      • April 24, 2012 10:16 AM EST: Apple announce WWDC 2013 June 10-14 (Tix on sale 4/25 10am PST) $1599
      • April 25, 2012 10:00 AM PST: WWDC 2012 On Sale
      • April 25, 2012 10:02 AM PST: WWDC 2012 sell out 2 minutes.
      • June 10-14, 2012: WWDC 2013

    Now what I love is the hang time between announcement, selling out, and opening day.

    At this rate: The conference will be announced May 30th, a week before the conference and likely sell out 2 days before the tickets go on sale.

    Good luck!