This is a poker hand I played today. The rest of you who could care less can punt. 🙂
I’m not posting this to the poker board because; as they say, “Go not to the usenet for council for they will say both yes and no, then yes, no, yes, yes, no, no nazi!”
I played an online free table today. 10 players NLHE.
A note about free tables online. One, the playing age is usually about 15. Second, people will tend to play anything and at the same time decide that QJ is a great hand.
The first hand of the match I was sitting at the seat 2 after the button. This is still relatively early position. The deal to me came 8h8d
blind, blind, fold. Hmmn. Okay. Early position middling pairs. I figure I can raise in 4x blinds (raise to 80 at 10/20 blinds) and either fold screaming like a schoolgirl or maybe hit a set.
Then something that annoyingly happens on free tables with increasing regularity occurred. The next three players in a row pushed all-in. 1500 each. There was now $4530 in this pot. 5 players fold and its around to me.
I really had to stop and think. Normally this is a no brainer fold. But then I thought that people love to go all in with Ace anything to see if they can suck out an all in on the first hand. I figured that I was the only pair at the table. Further, I had it in my head that since there were 3 people all going all in; maybe they’d blocked each others outs. the KQ and QJ block queen outs. I thought, odds to return… it might be worth busting on this free table; because I think I have the best hand…
Before the flop I was at 42.4% (I figured 40-45% in my head, the number I’ve since gone and calculated), I was getting 3:1 on my all in. So that made sense; but the idea of the play style of the table made it seem more likely. Now granted, one of them could have had an over pair. But it seemed unlikely. So… I took the risk and called
Sure enough: JQ QA A5; this was absolute perfection The first two canceled a Q out, the second two cancelled an A out. Amazingly, no one played a hand with a King. This we really good when the flop came: 4s Ks Kd
Well, everyone had a spade (except me) for anyone to draw the flush, 2 spades would need to fall. My only real concern was the QJ, that one had 3 outs to over pair me with the J. The rest would need to hit from a 2 out pack. Scary but still favourable. I’m now almost 62% Basically there are 7 outs I am trying to duck.
The turn brought a diamond (9). The flush draw odds were gone. This brought me to 65%. This card is actually bad for me. Really bad. if the 9 pairs then I am out; JQ are out and A5/AQ chop with Kings and 9s with an Ace kicker. Hadn’t thought of that until now. So now I am up to 10 outs against me.
The flop handed me a magic 3 (clubs) and I took down 3 players and pulled in a $6030 pot on the first hand. Interestingly against only 2 of them my odds pre flop would have been (43.8, 53.7, 38; The best of which would have been if A5/AQ would have faced off)
So… For the experienced lot; I am thinking it was a risk but pot odds, implied odds, and returns suggested it might be worth it. And it did pay off. I’d be curious to hear others comments on this.
