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Our post holiday ritual

Filed Under: About Me, Family, Life, Parenthood, Philosophy by Lord Andrei — Leave a comment
2012.01.04

To be honest, we are going to be moving soon; however, we seem to have had the holiday tree up and down in a very organised fashion this year. Well, organised discounting the decoration boxes around. We got the tree around the 15th or so and brought it and most of the lights down on the 2nd.

Outside the back of our house is Riverview Park. It’s also a fairly steep drop into the park. Since we remove all the decorations from a natural tree; we always cast the tree into the woods down the hill from our house. It’s a nice “Return to nature”/”Circle of Life” gesture.

So, we removed the decorations. I had my son put the dropped branches and needles into a bag. We carried the tree to the back of the house and I tossed it down the hill. Before I tossed it, we pointed out where last year’s tree was. We could see that parts of it were still there and parts had begun to wear down and return to the Earth.

Amusingly, when I threw this year’s tree it bounced and landed right on top of the previous year’s tree like a long forgotten lover. My son asked why we didn’t just throw it out. I told him that the tree came from the ground and by giving it back to the ground new trees would come. And tried to explain the “Circle of Life” concept.

He took the remaining branches out of the back and threw them down the hill into the woods. I told him he could yell, “Back to Earth” as he threw them. This made him very happy. I told him by giving to the Earth it would be our way of saying Winter will give way to Spring and the days will get longer and soon we will see all the trees green again.

He seemed to understand this and it made me very happy.

The concept of religion is a very complex (and personal) thing in our household; so it was nice to be able to give our son a grounding in a love and respect of nature while not miring him in too much dogma.

Happy holidays and happy new year to all. May this new year as always exceed the past and give way to even better tomorrows.

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Now is a good time to buy AAPL.

Filed Under: Apple, Work by Lord Andrei — Leave a comment
2012.01.03

Disclaimers:

  1. I do not work for Apple. I have never worked for Apple. Maybe one day the universe will smile on me and I shall work for Apple but I guarantee it will be the last employer I ever have.
  2. I am not a Wall Street Wiz. I do not fully understand the nature of stocks, bonds, options, etc. I do not day trade. I do not consider myself an active investor
  3. My comments do not reflect any company I work for, my family, my loved ones, my friends, my frienemies, my enemies, my diety, or any other thing that may go bump in the night.
  4. When I give Quarter numbers, I’m using Calendar quarters

Apple is currently trading at about $410 per share as 2012 kicks in. The 12 month estimate by many analysts is 460-500.

So I decided to throw my hat into the ring with only my experience of building my career off of Apple’s business.

First off: Previously to last week, the last time I bought into Apple Stock was December of 2008. For those keeping track that was in fact 3 weeks before Apple introduced the iPhone. I purchased at $92.67 per share. Which has now increased about 350%. I did not know for a fact that the iPhone was being introduced. But I had enough confidence in the rumours I was hearing at that point.

So where are we now? Apple has just delivered a holiday quarter that has had all iPhone carrier’s exclaiming record sales. (In the US: Verizon and AT&T simply won’t shut up about their iSales). In about 2 weeks Apple will deliver it’s quarterly numbers. The halo effect of these iOS sales continues to be very visible to anyone tracking Mac usage as well as Mac OS version usage. Black Friday on showed an unbelievable uptick in 10.7 Mac usage with a surprising lack of those numbers coming from pre-10.6 users scrapping those old machines. In fact, Giving a used Mac to a friend as a holiday gift seems to be on the increase this year.

I was a Steve fan as much as anyone else. But there were certain areas he was tenaciously stubborn about that I think that he might actually have been wrong about. One of the major issues was the “Berkshire Hathaway” view of having LARGE stock prices and no dividends. Wall Street definitely had a history of vicious treatment of the company that in the 90′s couldn’t have an article written about it that didn’t contain the word “Beleaguered.” In the 90′s you could be assured that if there was bad news, the Apple stock price would fall. If there was really good news, it would still fall. Much of this was blamed on the fickleness of day traders affecting the large investors (Money Markets, Indexes, Mutuals, etc). So there was no point to Dividends because there really wasn’t a reason to reward investors. People weren’t in Apple for the “Long” haul. And Apple was busy mounting a war chest of cash in case it needed to buy itself out against a hostile take-over.

But this isn’t the 90′s. This is 2012 where we’re dealing with a company that has gone up 400+% in the past 5 yrs and 3500% in the past 10 yrs. All with one split and no dividends. We now have some fairly entrenched funds that are in Apple for long range investment. Apple is major component of the NASDAQ and had to be reduced to more fairly balance the NASDAQ index.

Personally, I think Tim Cook sees this and has been pushing for either a split or a dividend for quite some time. And these are the kind of behaviors that will push long term heavy investors to push more money into Apple. It does risk bringing the day traders back in; but it also could cause another burst in value to push a post split cost up to a range that would again reduce the day trader signal to noise ratio.

But Apple doesn’t just play to Wall Street and that’s what’s made them so successful the past 15 years. As Jobs quoted Gretsky, “Don’t skate to the puck, skate to where the puck is going to be.” Apple has a bad 3rd quarter and it was well aware it was going to. Wall Street again battered them for “The ride is over” but the simple truth there was that they were positioning the products in the quarters that would give them the better return. This is why Apple is so tenacious about secrecy on new products. Once people are convinced the new product is coming; they stop buying the old product. The number of people this summer who asked me if they should wait for the (not yet delivered) iPhone 5 was insane. If you want an iPhone, get an iPhone. And then replace it after a comfortable amount of time. But many people expecting the replacement knowing it was not coming out when expected waited. One analyst said he expects the Q4 numbers to make up and include the perceived loss of the Q3 numbers. Apple wants the right killer product every quarter to make up the sales numbers. And if it means having one bad quarter to move a product to a better quarter… so be it.

Short form: Apple doesn’t care if it has a bad quarter if it will make things look even better in the long run. You may not be into Apple for the Long run, but Apple is.

So what’s on the horizon? Who knows. However, I will now look at the amorphous world of rumours and give you my opinions.

FIRST: UNTIL IT’S OUT; IT DON’T EXIST (SIC)

In general I think we’re going to see the following schedule in the world of Apple:
Q1: Mac Pro Laptops/Desktops
Q2: iPad 3
Q3: Mac Consumer Laptops / iMacs
Q4: iPhone: Alternating yearly between New models and “S” revs. 2012-Q4: iPhone 5; 2013-Q4: iPhone 5+; 2014-Q4: iPhone 6;

Ah but what about this elusive iTV. I think people will expect it in Q2, not get it; Wall Street will punish Apple for yet another unannounced product and then it will bounce back.

Oh, there’s certainly iTV in the works. Though, Q2 seems to early. It would also steal thunder from the iPad 3. Now if we swap Q1/Q2 and get the iPad out earlier the TV is potential for that Quarter. Personally, I wouldn’t expect to see it before Q4 with potentially an unveil in Q3 for the purposes of WWDC.

It is obvious that there is a conceptual progression within Apple for areas to move into that are not its base line of products. It also is still being first to ship on quickly imitated technologies, “Look Android and MSFT Phone have Siri, too… Um.. now”

So we can be sure that the iPad 3, the iPhone 5 will sell like gangbusters and continue Apple’s recent history of Year over year revenue increases. We also are clearly seeing a huge Halo effect into the App Store, Music Store, Mac platform. This for the next year or two will increase.

The competition. RIM is pretty well dead. Interest in the MSFT phone platform doesn’t sound good and with their treatment of the ZUNE, confidence in the long term is very low. Android is now closing code (1). Amazon is still selling at a loss. Things don’t look good number wise.

Okay… estimate time.

Initially my target number was 540 when I bought at $400 last week. I however am going to change that.

I believe that in other Q1 or Q2 the Quarterly report will include one or both of the following
A Split and a Dividend.
Personally, I think they could do a 3:2, but I think it will be a 2:1: This would effectively take the share price to $200. I think with the iPhone 4S numbers, the iPhone 5 and iPad 3 alone, this will then increase throughout the year to $275. If the TV does announce at this point; I think you will see that number in the range of 250-325 depending on its success.

So my final target for APPL for Dec 2012 (Assuming we haven’t found the mayan clock referred to at the bottom of the first clock where it says, “Continued on next clock”)
No Split: $560
Split: $295 ($590)

And no. I am not liable if you take this advice and lose your shirt :)

Regards.
Papa Drè
(I use that name when gambling)

(1) Android Ranked most ‘closed’ open source OS
(2) Android’s ‘clopen’ Ecosystem is Taking Toll on Customers
(3) Consequences Of Android’s “Openness”

Edits:
020120103.1355 – Added Android Footnote (1)
021202103.1359 – Added Android Footnotes (2,3)

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The Armchair Director – The Sing Off (Part 4)

Filed Under: Directing, Hobbies, Media by Lord Andrei — 2 Comments
2011.10.31

Well, what’s left?

As I have admitted, I watched episode 2 before episode 1. So I saw Pentatonix earlier than the others. Their first song alone had me falling out of my chair in amazement, bewilderedness, and above all, a HUNGER for more. How they do this and why they move into my first position will come after the analyses of the songs:

“E.T.” – (Signature) (iTunes, YouTube)
I was not familiar with this song. This added to the feeling that I can only define as, “I have never heard a sound like this.” A lyric tenor, a baritone with a high lift, and a woman with range hard to place. They each have their own sound and yet can get into tight harmonies in the same octave that personally I think is on par with the sound that Lennon and McCartney stamped all over the Beatles. But then you add in a very deep bass with a sense of harmony not merely rhythm and a beat box that produces sounds that you just don’t hear in Acapella that adds not just sound but dramatic character and you have an entirely new sound. More on these tight harmonies later.

“Your Love is My Drug” (Pop) (iTunes, YouTube)
A pounding rhythm and bass that sounds like an electronic track. Tight harmonies between the two high voices. Again placing a voice like Chris Colfer is not easy. And these voices just blend. You actually lose track of who’s on back up vocals because they stay the same regardless of the lead. And then the surprise. The beatbox not mearly sounds like he spins down the record, but the whole group follows in one motion. All the sound comes to a record stop. The song then goes VERY free form. Again… a sound I have NEVER heard. Now this was the song that Pentatonix has singled out for getting too far from the original. The judges didn’t take well to it. Shorter digression:

-=-=-=-

It is better that this hits Pentatonix here for two reasons: It’s earlier and it’s not as well known a song. You take Grapevine, and the later Pentatonix performed Video Killed and these are very huge classics. I think one can say that the average listener of “Your Love” has likely heard the other two songs and either loves them or hates them. The converse doesn’t hold and that works in Pentatonix’ favour. The average fan of Grapevine or Video Killed is more likely than not to have NEVER heard “Your Love is a Drug” which will afford them more leeway with audience buying them for the songs they know that do follow the three Rs.

-=-=-=-

“Piece of My Heart” (60s) (iTunes, YouTube)
This was a huge risk on the group’s part. Janice Joplin is a land mine of expectations. Not the least of which is taking a song of Feminine empowerment and giving the lead to a man. This was about as far as Pentatonix has gone from their core sound. The song works okay for them but they are at their best when they are bringing a song up a notch into a new realm.

“Video Killed the Radio Star” (Guilty) (iTunes, YouTube)
I honestly don’t know where to start with this. The magic of the backing vocals changing between people effortlessly shows here. This is the song where you really get the feeling that there are more than 3 primary voices in the group. Again the beat box brings in new sounds to an old classic while giving the utmost respect and reference to the original.

———–

So what is it about Pentatonix that puts them in first place in my eyes.
Well my battery is almost dead but when I return there will be what I call a nearly endless arsenal of weapons of music construction.

Let’s go with the obvious ones First:

1) Avi Kaplan – Not merely a bass but one who has melodic control. The Bass is often relegated to the background. A strong bass is the foundation. An unbelievable bass is one that adds character.

2) Kevin “K.O.” Olusola – A beatbox that produces sound that add character and compliment to the music. Rhythm is more than just adding drum sounds. It’s adding the right drum sound or not-a-drum sound at the right time. K.O. finds sounds that compliment the songs to provide not just the rhythm, but the tone of the piece.


1&2 together) Often the bass does one thing; the beat does one thing, and sometimes they go into unison. Avi and K.O. have a penchant for creating and performing collaborations. Bass and Beat worked together to create a specific sound that would be “Wrong” if not done that way together.

1 & 2 – Did I mention they both sing on occasion to fill in parts?

3) The remaining 12 vocalists, all three of them.

In the early eighties a three sister a capella group called “The Roches” did a rendition of “The Hallelujah Chorus.” This wasn’t the best performance in the world or the cleanest voices. But the three voices were so matched in their harmonies that the lead changes would disguise the backing vocals flipping parts. You were never quite sure who was on which backing harmony and as a result you mentally heard more voices than there were.

Listening to “Video Killed” you really lose track of who is doing the backing harmonies.

4) Scott Hoying – A strong Baritone with a controlled tenor lift, bass drop, and soft falsetto. More often than not Scott is the front man on melodies. Hoying’s ability to move between ranges lets him instantly mesh with either of the other two vocalists on backing vocals.

5) Mitch Grassi – A high lyric tenor with an almost Chris Colfer sound can be a curse. In this case while it can be; it isn’t. Pentatonix makes very wise choices as to what will fit Mitch’s voice both in backing and in lead. Again, like Scott, his range makes his blends in the back effortless.

6) Kirstie Maldonado – Experienced with complex harmonies, a soothing alto and a powerful soprano prove as always that the biggest things can come in very small packages.

4&5&6 together) Bouncing off each other’s range, they effectively create harmonies that truly weave their voices. You’re never really sure who’s doing the backing vocals. I mentioned earlier concerning Lennon and McCartney. One of the strongest things they gave the Beatles were those intertwined vocals. They were unmistakably one and only one band. I think these three do this for Pentatonix.

Did I mention that they also sometimes fill in on the beatbox and the bass?

There truly is no sense of ego here. Everyone does all the heavy lifting, everyone will back away from the spotlight. Everyone has a job and knows it’s a team effort.

And then there’s the sound they create. It is not evolutionary it is revolutionary. Pentatonix takes the genre of A capella to a new realm. The judges describe them as ‘delivered from the future’ to ‘teach us how it should be done’

Pentatonix for me is the clear winner, because they are ALREADY working at a level that I’d expect from a group with a recording contract.

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Single Serving “Friend”

Filed Under: About Me, Life, Philosophy, Politics by Lord Andrei — Leave a comment
2011.10.31

(Posted at 35,000 feet on an airplane! Whee!)

The movie “Fight Club” features a concept of the “Single Serving Friend.” On an airplane everything comes in Single Servings. Alcohol comes in little bottles; chips come in small bags; even the cutlery if you’re in first class is small.

Thanks to having a lot of miles of late (Two Cupertino trips Plus a first class trip to Seattle) I was able to upgrade my business trip back to Cupertino this week for miles alone. Traveling in First Class has its pluses and minuses. First class now a days means traveling with the 2nd .5%. And then the top 10% of the 99%. The top 10 of the 99% are cool. They know how much work and effort, it takes to get those upgrades. But the 2nd .5%… they are the scary ones.

These are the obviously wealthy, but not ludicrously wealthy. There is a gaudiness to the Swagger, Suit, Jewelry or attitude. Waiting on line to board I got to see one of these folk in action. In the city I often play a game I call “B or B” which stands for “Bluetooth or Bonkers.” Is the person talking to themselves or on a Bluetooth headset. The woman who wandered up to where we were queuing was not merely on a Bluetooth headset, but ranting at some poor invisible person like she was Bonkers. She was yelling to the person how even if she didn’t make her connection they would get her another plane. That there was no way she was missing this flight and there was no argument on this.

As she bickered with the luggage size limitation sign (as that’s where her eyes focused as she argued) she began inching closer to the front of the line. I was queued 3rd behind a very nice couple. I had my suit coat over one arm, I have a very nice red button down business shirt, and was waring my work back pack carrying my techno-stuff. When they called pre-boarding for small children and people needing assistance, she started to move forward and then seemed greatly put off that others were being boarded before her.

They then called first class and she moved in. “That’s alright we’re just queued here already,” I said in my standard Airport British Accent. When I don’t want to deal with people after they’ve been an ass in public, I put on a British accent. It really doesn’t accomplish anything; I think it’s merely a security blanket. Nonetheless, ignoring me and the nice couple she pushed in. Unfortunately, my backpack was there and she walked directly into it. She let out an unpleased oof, mixed with a sound that can only be described as the threat of an unwanted mastectomy. I of course as politely as possible turned about and said, “Oh dear, are you okay.” She was very angry. This was stunning as I actually hadn’t tried to get in her way, she just felt the need to be past me whether I was there or not.

As I looked down at her boarding pass I muttered, “Oh crap.” The nice couple said, “It wasn’t your fault. I wouldn’t worry about it.” I remarked, “No, I just saw her boarding pass, she’s sitting next to me for the next 4 hours..” “You’re the stronger person, I think you’ll survive.” (Mentally, I had an image of a Disco Ball crashing on the person’s head)

I got onto the plane and stood at my aisle seat. The woman looked at me and I said, “It looks like we’ll be sitting together then.” With a bit of venom she responded, “Well, obviously we’ve already gotten to know each other.”

Since then; not a word has passed between us. This is not surprising.

(You know, you really can’t write this stuff without living it.)

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The Armchair Director – The Sing Off (Part 3)

Filed Under: Directing, Hobbies, Media by Lord Andrei — Leave a comment
2011.10.28

By this point episode 6 has run and I was clearly wrong. This post will continue on the previous ones and take apart my #3 and #2 groups. The following post will be an examination of my pick for the winner. In a few days I’ll have the Post episode 6 evaluation. What I got right, wrong, and where I think the judges fouled out. My notes for the next two posts do not take episode 6 into consideration.

On the record: Of the remaining three groups; I would buy albums from any of them. I would love to see ANY of them perform live. That being said, I have to take them down one at a time.

Urban Method. I feel bad taking them down in third because they are just so damned good. They really haven’t done anything wrong. And it is so refreshing to hear a rapper brought into Acapella where they really belong anyway. Urban Method has a great mix that doesn’t rely on any one of their parts. One of this hidden weapons of this group is Vocalist Troy who can pull the spot light as easily as Myk on Rap. A very tight group.

 

The songs so far on a one by one:

“Love the Way you Lie” (Signature)
This duet was amazing. I think the female vocal could have had a little more strength. Not so much in power but in confidence. The Rap was so powerful against it that it almost felt overwhelming. The backing vocals in this are amazing. Great buzz to the bass. The blend in the background just lets the piece ride.

“Just Can’t Get Enough” (Pop)
At first I truly thought there were going to be NO rap vocals in this. The Bass literally shook me. The secondary male vocals are outstanding.Much better blend between these two. Musically very tight. Hard tradition to the funk. The backing gets a bit muddy here. This is still a stunning song.

“Dance to the Music” (60′s)
This is a complicated song. With a great deal of syncopated vocals. This one has minimal rap. Urban Method did a stunning job of making this song sound like the original but still stamped with their own sound. This was about as far from their base that I heard them travel. This was a show of stunning diversity.

“Poison” (Guilty)
Flawless cover of the song. Poison rap fit in perfectly. Voices were perfect for this song. Didn’t depart too far from the original. Female backing vocals really blend well on this one. This is a single to buy. Fantastic all around. Their best showing.

There really isn’t one bad song in this lot of 4. So how do they wind up in third on my list. Again, Urban Method is FANTASTIC. But there is almost nothing truly new to what they are doing. They are just doing it better than anyone else who is recapturing a sound. They have chosen a sound that’s been lost to Acapella. Funk, Rap, Urban… this was the sound of South Philly outside the doowop sound that would birth groups like Bel Biv Devoe who Urban Method is paying tribute to.

Urban Method is an amazing rebirth tribute to an Acapella sound that does not get enough airplay or groups in the industry and I do hope they turn out many albums. However, as I’ve said… they haven’t given me the something “New” that I think can come this season from the other two groups.

Deciding between Afro Blue and Pentatonix is in its own way a nightmare. Both groups are so amazingly different that there has to be a reason one will stand in the long run over the other. I watched the first two weeks and called my #1 group on the first performance and so far am staying with them. Both groups were singled out for one song going “Too far” from its base and being too complicated and over thought. Both groups pulled it in the following week by raising the bar to the next level.

My number two is going to have to be Afro Blue. I really love this group. Honestly they have made some complex jazz very accessible. The blends are effortless. They use scat, jazz, samba, and a whole array of mixed styles. And as I was recently reminded. They are a college group. They don’t sound like it. But they are. And Howard should be VERY proud.

The songs so far one a one by one:

“Put Your Records On” (Signature)
A sultry lead voice with a fantastic female backup blend. The bass and rhythm sounds like something out of an after hours jazz mixer. The simple breakouts just make you want to lay back with quadrophonic headphones by a pool or in some exotic location and drift along for the ride.Even when this could get a bit spread out, the group keeps the blend together. This is very nice.

“American Boy” (Pop)
Scat… And two people together followed by everyone else. This is a “Wow”. And it just keeps going. Even as backing. A different lead singer giving the group a very different tone. The Andrews Sisters would be excited with a touch of Boogie-Woogie here. Again, blends that just happen naturally. A touch of Beat record scratch to modernise and you are hooked.

“Heard it Through the Grapevine” (60s)
This was the song singled out for getting too complicated. I will agree, about halfway through AfroBlue tries to take the song in a new direction. We lose the original driving nearly heart beat bass line that makes many folks remember animated dancing raisins. This requires a digression.

A cover of a song is different from a reworking of a song which is different from a new interpretation of a song. The more classic the original the more eggshells you are inevitably walking on the further you move from base. A one hit wonder is much like a cult classic film. The important thing is that you must approach the original with “Three R’s”: reverence, respect, and reference. This is why ‘Weird Al’ Yankovic has been able to continue to churn out satire after satire since the 1970s. Reverence is needed because the original has its position in history. Respect is because the listener has a personal attachment to it. Reference because the listener has specific hooks that give that attachment. An example would be like singing “Take On Me” shifted down 3-5 keys so that the singer didn’t have to hit as high a note. That note is the expectation and challenge to every self-styled Karaoke guru. Removing it is changing the song.

This specific issue is what I think killed Sonos in Round 3. Their reworking of the Jackson 5 lost everything that made that song enjoyable and at the same time gave it a sultriness that when compared to the “kids” that sang it made it feel not merely dirty, but full on into uncomfortably awkward.

This can be a double edged sword. The Deltones did an almost exact cover of “You Can’t Hurry Love.” As much as it did the honour; the danger is that this competition is not for a Cover group. There has to be some responsibility in taking ownership of the work with a signature.

In this competition every song is a cover. So the stakes are high in picking the right song, giving it a signature, a twist, but not twisting so far it breaks.

In the case of Grapevine, Afro Blue was given the warning of going too far into their jazz complexities that the song might be lost. Afro Blue took this advice and brought the whole competition up a notch.

“I Wanna Dance With Someone” (Guilty)
I always felt this song was inane. Giving it a slight samba beat almost seemed to give the song a sense of understanding. Back from Grapevine was the driving rhythm that makes this a very infectious song. This time, all the women got a few bars of solo. And the blends were stunning. There were still dips into Jazz, but now it was more metered into the style of the song. The interpretation gives this song an entirely new life. This is what sells old songs in new records. This is one of their best pieces to date.

 

Up next. My number one group. I picked them in their first week and I’m sticking with them all the way. Pentatonix

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