Updated: I’ve bolded what I got right, and struck thru the wrong. I think this may be the best I’ve ever done on one of these.
I have to admit, as a niche Apple 3rd party engineer, I hate these days. It’s not that I’m not excited for the technologies, believe me; I am. But so is everyone else now. Over the last 2-4 weeks I have been asked by no less than 50 people what is being released. Actually, to be more exact, people ask me if “Product X” will be released.
A couple of reminders. I do not not have I ever worked for Apple. <sarcasm degree=”mild”>So, of course; I am utterly privy to their product release schedule.</sarcasm> Okay, it’s true. As a niche developer who’s devoted my career to one company’s products; I do make business analysis part of my job. But, personally, I’ve gotta feel sorry for the guys who do that for a job like Ken Ray and Andy Ihnatko. They must get grilled by the minute coming into one of these.
But of course; yes, I have my predictions of what will occur today.
But first, I do remind everyone to take a breath and consult this BRILLIANT chart of the Anatomy of Apple Rumors.
Software:
It’s pretty damned obvious we’ll be seeing iOS 5.0 and Mac OS 10.7.2. I do not believe that the former will be available today. Going by the rumor and leaks board (as I will not confirm my knowledge as a developer under NDA) The last beta seed of iOS 5.0 was released on the 30th of August. Beta seed 7 came a very short time after beta seed 6 and dealt with iCloud adjustments. There was also a seed of 10.7.2 and iTunes. At this time; I do not believe developers have been given the go ahead to submit app updates against iOS 5.0. This process takes 1-2 weeks. Usually quicker pre-release. But the idea of Apple releasing an OS without the Apps really checked solidly against the release version for bugs and crashes seems RISKY. So: Expect a solid release date for iOS 5.0 of 1-3 weeks from now.
10.7.2 may release today; but I sense that the rapid iCloud updates suggest there may be a little bump or two that needs to be ironed out. And if they are seeing these bumps with thousands of developers; they know they aren’t ready for millions of non-developers. iCloud is the future for Apple and it has to above all else not be another Mobile Me.
iCloud:
On the topic of iCloud; it touches everything. So expect updates to Mac OS, iOS, iLife, iWork (Mac and iOS), AppleTV, and anything else that Apple touches with storage.
iPhones:
Ah the question I have been asked for months. Literally.
The rumours are split over two devices: the iPhone 4S and the iPhone 5.
Again, strictly off the rumours boards I don’t see an iPhone 5 coming at this time.
I realize that it’s been 16 months since the last major phone release. I realise that the Holiday buying season is about to kick off (or did that start in May, I lose track)
Honestly, unless Apple has achieved an entirely new standard in leak control (which is possible) there’s not a lot to hang the iPhone 5 off of at this point. Also; this kind of a change is more likely to cannibalise some of their potential holiday sales. With the current war on the middle class; people want better for cheaper. And new iPhone models ‘appear’ cheaper by having more power and doodads for the same price. So, an iPhone 5 will have great power, but still be a tier above netting a huge holiday influx. Especially with toys like cheap Androids and the Amazon Kindle Fire being sold at a loss.
I’m going to agree with the following rumors:
iPhone 4 at 8GB for less than the current models. A surprising amount less
iPhone 3GS base model for free with a contract. And I can see all the advertising, “You can get an Apple iPhone for FREE*” (With that huge asterisk over the word Free because a contract is always necessary”
The iPhone 4S. (S is for Speed) New chip (A5, dual core?), slightly better cameras (maybe), and better antennas. Not a whole lot new. The other concern with the iPhone 5 now is that people have learnt to wait 2-3 months on a NEW model. And that doesn’t appeal to the true Christmas, “BUY NOW NOW NOW!” spirit.
I also do not believe the iPhone4S will come in multi-carrier flavor. Too much of a board and phone redesign. Expect that in the 5.
What else will motivate people to those 3GS, 4, and maybe new 4S?
The death of the iPod Classic. People don’t need 120G of music on their phone immediately. Especially if they can genius from the cloud. (Ignoring the fact that the Cloud is in direct opposition to the Providers throttling over usage) Now I’ve never been a huge iPod nut, so beyond that. Will there be shake up on the rest of the iPod line? Dunno (Actually, don’t really care 😉
iPod Touch… Honestly… I think that will just sort of sit until the next major update.
Other New Stuff:
Sprint – Yes, already. Blazingly obvious
T-Mobile, USA – No (Sound the cloister bells on this company)
There’s been a lot of talk about the Siri Assistant thingie. Voice to text. A continual dream. If Apple releases that with iOS 5.0 this month that will cause a little eden backlash (which Apple really doesn’t put a lot into). The Siri will obviously need an API for devs. But, Apple as the advance on that. So will they release Apps with a competitive edge that devs don’t have access to immediately? Seems suspect; but they’ve done it before. It could also be the reason that there hasn’t been a “use this version for submittal” yet.
Updated: I’m going to take half credit here. Siri is being released with iOS 5 only for the iPhone 4S as a beta. Further it is only listed as available (at the current time) for Native OS apps. So theoretically, iWork apps and the like won’t have Siri on their next release. The problem occurs when Apple sells an app that someone may compete with that has access to proprietary services or APIs that are otherwise unavailable.
Rentals, Movies, Music, Media…
A little of this a little of that.
Something long overdue for the international folks.
The future:
I think the things you want to see: iPhone5 (iOS 5.1 or 5.5; will not support the 3GS), iPad3, Apple TV 3, etc
January. In competition with CES; “Like they do.”
SUMMARY:
- iOS 5.0 – solid release date 1-3 weeks
- MacOS 10.7.2 – solid release date 1 week, maybe today
- iCloud –
with whatever OS hits first(End of October)
- Siri – 30%
with a chance of iOS delay (Beta, see comments above)
Apple TV update(Expect by the end of Oct)iWork, iLife(Expect by the mid of Nov)
Hardware
- iPhone 3GS – free
- iPhone 4 – 8G model
- iPhone 4S – 16G, 32G, (new)64G model (How they pack it in will be a surprise)
Other
- Sprint to carry iPhone
Movie, App, Music thingeeCards?- Something nifty internationally
The last word: I am wrong more than I am right on these things. Apple has a history for pulling products at not merely the 11th hour but at 12:02 with a five minute delay in the presentation. I know many of my fellow third party developers really wanted to see C.B. at WWDC and still do. Apple is also very good at keeping certain things under DEEP wraps. So I fully will be happy to be entirely wrong on my predictions.
Check back in a day or so when I grade myself.
So far I’ve had 2 of 3 meetings that I need to have. I have two colleagues that I initially wanted to discuss the idea. These conversations went well. One of my colleagues is technical and has been asking me when I’d go on my own for quite some time. The other is a business expert to help me understand the needs from a business point of view. It’s very easy to have an idea. It’s very difficult to codify it into something that people other than a few of us believe in.
So, despite today being a minor government holiday, “National ‘People who Ignore the fact that we have Veterans’ Subjugation Day” it was also the first day of the next step in my work career.
To believe that I wasn’t going to experience any emotional gullies would be absolutely fool-hearty. I know I’m going to have moments of absolutely doubt over the next period of my life. My amazing spouse thinks that this is the vector in my life where I need to stop pairing myself up with Mega-Corporations and truly embrace what I love. Our largest roadblock to that has finally lifted. A full-time corporation with more than 50 employees would be required to provide medical insurance to my otherwise ‘difficulty-to-insure’ spouse. Assuming I can get logged into healthcare.gov that is no longer an issue.
Two years ago to the day was my last official day working for Microsoft. This is a bit of a complicated statement unto itself. As that day was about 2 months after I was officially laid off. At least laid off in the Microsoft manner.