Tag Archive: estimations

Follow the bouncing date

WWDC season is approaching again. For those out of the know this is Apple’s World Wide Developer Conference.

This is the “Go To” conference for Mac Tech. The future of the platforms are exposed here. Interestingly, we’re supposed to get an entirely new OS this summer called Lion: Mac OS X 10.7. Developers have seen exactly what the public has seen concerning this OS.

Now the format of WWDC goes like this (at least the last 3 years)

  • Dec-Mar: Rumoured estimate of WWDC Dates
  • Mar/Apr: WWDC Dates announced, tickets on sale
  • (Shortening span): WWDC Tickets sold out
  • June (give or take a week): WWDC

Here’s the actual recap:

  • 2008
    • 2008: No early rumour
    • Mar 13, 2008: Apple announces WWDC 2008 June 9-13 (Tix on sale) $1295/1595
    • May 14, 2008: WWDC 2008 sold out (60 days, first sell out)
    • June 8-12, 2008: WWDC 2008
  • 2009
    • Mar 6, 2009: Rumour of WWDC 2009 to be 2nd week of June
    • Mar 26, 2009: Apple announces WWDC 2009 June 8-12 (Tix on sale) $1295/1595
    • Apr 28, 2009: WWDC 2009 sold out (28 days)
    • June 8-12, 2009: WWDC 2009
  • 2009/2010
    • Dec 21, 2009: Rumour of WWDC 2010 to be June 28-July 2
    • April 28, 2010: Apple announces WWDC 2010 June 7-11 (Tix on sale) $1599
    • May 6, 2010: WWDC 2010 sold out (8 days)
    • June 7-11, 2010: WWDC 2010 (Announce iOS4, iWork for iOS, iPhone 4, XCode 4)
  • 2011
    • Feb 7, 2010: Rumour of WWDC 2011 to be June 5-June 9
    • March 28, 2011 8:30 AM EST: Apple announces WWDC 2011 June 6-10 (Tix on sale) $1599
    • March 28, 2011 6:30 PM EST: WWDC 2011 sold out 10 Hours
    • June 6-10, 2011: WWDC 2011 (Announce???)
  • 2012
    • Feb 12, 2011: Rumour of WWDC 2012 to be June 10-June 15
    • April 25, 2012 8:30 AM EST: Apple announce WWDC 2012 June 11-15 (Tix on sale) $1599
    • April 25, 2012 10:23 AM EST: WWDC 2012 sell out 1 Hour 53 minutes.
    • June 11-15, 2012: WWDC 2012
  • 2013
    • April 24, 2012 10:16 AM EST: Apple announce WWDC 2013 June 10-14 (Tix on sale 4/25 10am PST) $1599
    • April 25, 2012 10:00 AM PST: WWDC 2012 On Sale
    • April 25, 2012 10:02 AM PST: WWDC 2012 sell out 2 minutes.
    • June 10-14, 2012: WWDC 2013

Now what I love is the hang time between announcement, selling out, and opening day.

At this rate: The conference will be announced May 30th, a week before the conference and likely sell out 2 days before the tickets go on sale.

Good luck!

I have been in Software Engineering Training this week.

This is not teaching me how to code. It teaches me the tools I need to be effective to get to the point where I code.

Working with requirements, proper planning, interacting with test and project managers.

One of the main responsibilities of an engineer is making an estimate. In the ST:TNG episode “Relics” we learn the truth about Scotty and how every estimate he made was always overly padded to always come off like he was a miracle worker.

As an example exercise we were shown a photo of a jelly-bean jar. We were asked to estimate how many were in the jar. The jar front was shaped like a hexagon. The side view was rectangular.

I looked at the screen. I counted the number of beans across and down the front rectangle (discounting the side triangles) I counted the beans along the depth of the jar. I also counted the beans across the with of the side triangle.

I multiplied out and got an estimate of just shy of 3000. People started yelling answers. A couple yelled 3000, some yelled 4,000. I knew it was short of 3000 and I also knew this was just a pointless exercise. But my general character kicked in and I had a smart-ass moment. On the “Price is Right” you always try to undercut the guesses.

I said, “2850”… The room laughed at the detail I put into such a trivial exercise. I was asked to explain. Someone shouted out, “Price is Right” and I agreed that went into it. We discussed the different methods people used to get their numbers.

Afterward the teacher looked up and said… By the way. the correct answer was, “2845”

There was much laughter and applause.

During the break, I asked if I won the Prize winning pig.